Good morning folks

 

It’s a windy winderful morning on the south banks of the Lovu River. Yesterday I had the pleasure of interviewing for a sustainability consultant position. In my research for the interview I decided to get up to speed on the latest and greatest in the sustainability world here in South Africa.

 

Here are some of the findings that really astounded and have spurred me to action:

 

Note: “mT” stands for metric ton whereas “MT” stands for one million metric tons. So mTCO2e is one metric ton CO2 equivalent (greenhouse gases other than CO2 have different factors related to CO2 and are included in Scope 2)

 

1) The National Environmental Management Act ("NEMA") was promulgated in 2004 and the preamble reads as follows: "To reform the law regulating air quality in order to protect the environment by providing reasonable measures for the prevention of pollution and ecological degradation and for securing ecologically sustainable development while promoting justifiable economic and social development; to provide for national norms and standards regulating air quality monitoring, management and control by all spheres of government; for specific air quality measures; and for matters incidental thereto."

 

2) Carbon Tax for Scope 1 emissions became due and payable on July 02 2021 for the period 01-01-2020 to 31-12-2020 for "any person who conducts a taxable activity".

 

3) The biggest polluters are Sasol and Eskom. In 2023, Sasol paid RBn 1,14 in carbon tax after carbon offsets and electricity levies. Eskom is allowed to recover carbon tax from consumers through their environmental levy which will fall away but they will be able to recover tax from direct charges and it is estimated this will amount to R0,11/kWh in 2026. Electricity consumption dropped in 2024 to 219,6TWh. i.e. carbon tax of RBn24,16 was collected.

 

4) Deloitte estimated RBn1,6 was paid to SARS for carbon taxes in 2022.

 

5) Most South African entities paying carbon tax are currently paying around R9,50/mTCO2e. 

 

6) SARS will no longer be applying the rebates it did and will now incorporate Scope 2 emissions. In 2026 carbon tax for small entities is expected to be in the order of R46/mTCO2e on average,  the proposed tax is R236/mTCO2e without rebates and by 2030 the expectation is it will be around R462/mTCO2e.

 

7) Exports will incur  additional taxes under the Cross Border Adjustment Mechanism, “CBAM”. Current European Carbon Tax is sitting at Euro85/mT or R1630 so exporters to Europe will be hit very hard. With China dumping goods into the European markets and our current relations with the USA manufacturers of exported goods are feeling the pinch.

 

8) We currently pay R0,14/L carbon tax on petrol and R0,17/L on diesel. Petrol consumption is around 9,3 billion L per year and diesel, 12,8. So that’s another Rbn 3,5 for carbon taxes on these two products.

 

9) Our carbon tax bill every year is around R 30 billion a year. How are we doing with our climate change initiatives?

 

10) South African emissions for 2024 were 41600 MTCO2e with 37400MTCO2e attributed to fossil fuels. We ranked 38 on the Climate Change Performance Index. Our target committed to by government under the Paris Climate Change Accords for 2025 is 398 to 510 and by 2030 to be "carbon neutral" at 350 - 420MTCO2e. We are way off track.

 

Unless we as a country do something radically different we have sold ourselves to slavery again to foreign entities. The bitter irony is that for all the effort in reducing emissions, nature is the major player in climate change, not anthropological activity. Solar flares, the South Atlantic Anomaly, volcanic activity have much greater impact that we can do nothing about.

 

An honest approach would be to apologise to the Climate Change Accord people, to say we cannot meet our commitments and to steer some of the money accrued for carbon tax to home grown initiatives that will not only be sustainable but also simultaneously address power supply, wastewater remediation and re-use, enable communities to manage utility supply themselves, create jobs, create technology to export to other nations.

 

To this end I am offering a 50% stake in a new entity for Rm50 that will achieve these objectives on a first come first served basis, only for today and only for South Africans or wholly South African owned entities. If government comes on board, their stake will be for the people of South Africa for exactly these intended purposes. Any donations of course would be welcome.